10/6/2023 0 Comments Julia galef book![]() Winner in the Practical Manager category of the CMI Management Book of the Year awards 2014.Humans see what they want to see when it comes to beliefs. And they explore people's tendency to be over-confident about how their choices will unfold.ĭrawing on case studies as diverse as the downfall of Kodak and the inspiring account of a cancer survivor, they offer both a fascinating tour through the workings of our minds and an invaluable guide to making smarter decisions. They demonstrate the perils of getting trapped in a narrow decision frame. In the process, they show why it is that experts frequently make mistakes. At the same time they demonstrate how relatively easy it is to avoid the pitfalls and find the best answers, offering four simple principles that we can all learn and follow. In Decisive, Chip and Dan Heath draw on decades of psychological research to explain why we so often get it very badly wrong - why our supposedly rational brains are frequently tripped up by powerful biases and wishful thinking. Just making a decision can be hard enough, but how do you begin to judge whether it's the right one? Chip and Dan Heath, authors of #1 New York Times best-seller Switch, show you how to overcome your brain's natural shortcomings. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future-whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life-and is destined to become a modern classic. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people-including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer-who set out to forecast global events. ![]() In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. " The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow."Įveryone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. A must-read for every professional who has ever exclaimed, 'Sure, that concept is important, but can we measure it?'"Ĭofounder and CEO of MetraMetrics, Inc. "This book is remarkable in its range of measurement applications and its clarity of style. Hubbard bridges the gaps to make college statistics relevant and valuable for business decisions." This book cuts through conventional cliches and business rhetoric and offers practical steps to using measurements as a tool for better decision making. "As a reader you soon realize that actually everything can be measured while learning how to measure only what matters. We encourage our clients to try his powerful, practical techniques." ![]() "Doug Hubbard has provided an easy-to-read, demystifying explanation of how managers can inform themselves to make less risky, more profitable business decisions. How to Measure Anything provides just the tools most of us need to measure anything better, to gain that insight, to make progress, and to succeed."Īnd inventor of the first antivirus software Hubbard helps us by showing us that when we seek metrics to solve problems, we are really trying to know something better than we know it now. Douglas Hubbard helps us create a path to know the answer to almost any question in business, in science, or in life. Praise for How to Measure Anything: Finding the Value of Intangibles in Business
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